The Prisoner's Dilemma

There is a very famous game theory problem, called the Prisoner's Dilemma, that has specific application to international negotiations. Here are the basics:

Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal. If one testifies (defects from the other) for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent (cooperates with the other), the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act?

Obama's recent foreign policy decisions remind me of the Dilemma. There is one chilling difference though. Obama has chosen to cooperate with the other side (youtube video to Iran, reduced missile defense in Alaska and Europe, pathetic response to North Korea) and has actually made his choice known to the other side before they have to make their own decisions.

The potential benefit is that any country who might want to cooperate can do so without fear of being exploited.

However, does anyone think Iran, North Korea, China or Russia has much interest in acting cooperatively? Of course not. And so the problem is that these countries, and others, know they can exploit Obama's cooperative actions without danger to themselves. In fact, they have no incentive not to exploit Obama. As Charles Krauthammer notes, Obama is attempting to the world lead by example. But is anyone else really going to follow? Maybe Biden meant he was talking about Obama with his "no one's following" bit.

Catholic Support Slipping?

Amy Sullivan of Time Magazine reports that Obama is already losing support from Catholic voters.

I said during the campaign that Catholics were fooling themselves if they believed Obama was the "real" pro-life candidate. And now they are realizing the truth.

It's a bit of buyers' remorse now. The question, of course, is the impact. Will Obama lose a huge voting bloc when it comes time for reelection (assuming the country survives that long)? Or will this all be forgotten by then? My guess is that if he continues along these lines, more Catholics will feel the same way as those at Notre Dame, who protested the President's visit.

New Global Warming Study

Hot Air reports on a new study from NASA that suggests global warming is indeed man-made, though not in the way liberals claim.

Apparently, reduction of aerosol and sulphur emissions starting in the 70's led to a reduction of particulate matter in the atmosphere that actually caused a cooling effect. Reducing emissions led to a reduction in cooling materials and a rise in the temperature, which caused higher-than-usual melting of the arctic shelf.

Talk about the law of unintended consequences.

Or, were they actually intended? Remember, back in the 70's, liberals were warning us about going into another ice age. Looks like they managed to prevent that from happening (ha ha) and got us warmed up pretty well.