The Sprint Begins, Obama Backs Off

There are 60 days until election day. The longest Presidential campaign in American history will soon be at an end. We basically have a tied game going into the ninth inning of the seventh game of the World Series.

And exactly because the game is tied, Barack Obama has backed off of his pledge to compete in all 50 states. At one point, Obama was either foolish enough, or egotistical enough, to think he could challenge McCain in traditional Republican states and win a huge majority of the electorate on November 4th.

But now, Obama realizes that such a scenario is not possible. And so, instead of campaigning in all 50 states, he has cut it down to a more manageable 14.

Most of the biggies are the same as the past two elections - Ohio, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Other competitive states include Minnesota, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri.

McCain has a real shot of turning blue states Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire red.

Obama is trying to do the opposite with Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

And the purple states - Ohio, Minnesota, Florida and Wisconsin remain as competitive as ever.

In the end, Obama probably won't win Florida, Indiana, Virginia or North Carolina.

And if the trends from the last two years continue, McCain won't convert Pennsylvania or New Hampshire or win Minnesota or Wisconsin

Which means that the election comes down to Michigan, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. Five states to decide it all.

Amazingly, if McCain wins Ohio and Colorado and Obama wins the rest, we have a 269-269 tie. In the case of a tie, the House of Representatives chooses the President (with one vote per state) and the Senate chooses the Vice President (with one vote per Senator). I don't really know how the House might decide, but it could lead to a perverse McCain-Biden leadership, something which hasn't been seen since the early 19th century.

And if McCain loses Ohio, he has to win Michigan, Colorado, and one of the two others.

Likewise, Obama can lose the entire Midwest and win the nomination by sweeping the Rust Belt. But a loss in either Michigan or Ohio would result in a McCain presidency.

Ultimately, I think Obama will manage to hold on to Michigan, despite the impact his lack of campaigning during the primary season might have. He also looks poised to win New Mexico because he polls extremely well among the Latinos that make up a huge percentage of the voting population.

So McCain has to win Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. And he has 60 days to convince voters there that anything else will be unacceptable for the country as a whole.